A case study of regional risk assessment of river restoration projects: Nakdong River Basin, South Korea

Abstract

An integrated approach to risk assessment that can pose significant challenges to mitigation and adaptation at the local or regional levels in the context of climate change was developed. First, a conceptual framework for flood risk analysis was developed based on the hydrologic hazard and the socioeconomic vulnerability of a region. Second, weighting factors for each indicator were estimated using the modified Delphi approach based on the results of a survey of an expert group. Third, geographic information system analysis described the hydrologic risk at the regional level before and after completion of the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project at the Nakdong River Basin, South Korea. Finally, sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the extent of the resilience of the Nakdong River Basin based on climate change scenarios to extend the existing research. It was found that the effect of the river restoration project in the future would be insignificant in terms of risk control over regions where floods are likely to increase upon climate change. We believe that this study provides useful information for the development of scientific, effective risk management tools for consistent application in a time of changing climate.