A case study of climate-smart management in foxtail millet (Setaria italica) production under future climate change in Lishu county of Jilin, China

Abstract

In China, foxtail millet (Setaria italica) is one of the main cereal crops. Due to its rich nutrition, foxtail millet has also been widely used as Traditional Chinese Medicine in dietary therapy. The spatial distribution of foxtail millet production plays an important role in domestic cropping pattern. Cropping pattern needs to be continually adjusted in order to combat ongoing climate change in China. Such adjustments could greatly affect national foxtail millet production. Under future climate scenarios, adopting climate-smart management has become the general trend to achieve a high and stable foxtail millet production. In this case study, we used DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on foxtail millet production in Lishu county of Jilin province in Northeast China. According to these potential impacts, we proposed corresponding measures to adapt local foxtail millet production to future climate change. As compared to the base period (1988–2018), foxtail millet grain yield in Lishu county would change by 15.3% (-8.9%) during the 2020s, -8.8% (-10.5%) during the 2030s, -17.7% (0.4%) during the 2040s, and -25.0% (-18.3%) during the 2050s under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Under future climate scenarios, climate-smart management (e.g., adjusting sowing date, supplementing irrigation) could partially offset the adverse impact of climate change on foxtail millet yield. However, adopting climate-smart management alone may only provide temporary relief to the potential stresses local foxtail millet production could be facing. In order to achieve a high and stable foxtail millet yield in the future, we suggest local producers adopt new varieties in addition to using climate-smart management.