A case history of the application of social judgment theory to policy formulation

Abstract

Social judgment theory provides (1) a theoretical framework for understanding the origin of policy quarrels and (2) methods for their resolution. Social judgment theory asserts that differences in policy are often cognitive in origin. Such cognitive differences are produced by the highly interdependent aspects of the more or less unreliable environments within which policies are made. Discussion alone is often insufficient for resolving policy differences because the covert, inconsistent nature of human judgment prevents individuals from accurately describing their cognitive processes. Consequently, judgmental aids, such as computer graphics technology and input-output analysis, are necessary in order to externalize and thus to clarify the causes of disagreement. Social judgment theory, computer graphics technology, and input-output analysis were successfully employed both in formulating an agency-wide policy as well as specifying how this policy would be implemented. Empirical support for the theoretical position was thus obtained.