A Budbreak-based Chilling and Heating Model for Predicting First Entry of Pecan Nut Casebearer

Abstract

A modification of the chilling and heating model for pecan budbreak was used to describe the interactive effects of chilling and heating on the date of first entry of the pecan nut casebearer (PNC; Acrobasis nuxvorella Neunzig) into the pecan [Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) K. Koch] fruit. Selected data from unpublished and published sources were used to construct the model. Base temperatures of 9.4 and 13.9C for chilling and heating, respectively, provided the best fit (r2 = 0.981) for the model used to predict PNC activity. An inverse relationship [1/Y = 0.0037259(1 – 0.1e–0.0028069x – 574.9638969)] was found between chilling (1 Dec. through February) and heating (beginning 1 Feb.) degree-days accumulated until entry of first-generation PNC into the pecan fruit. This model can be used to predict entry of first-generation PNC larvae into fruit over a range of geographic and climatic conditions and pecan genotypes. Model validation using 1994 data from two sites in Texas suggests precision is sufficient to use the model as a guide in managing nut casebearer control.