A bottom-up approach to identify important hydrological processes by evaluating a national scale EA-LSTM model for Denmark

Abstract

The utilization of data-driven models in hydrology has witnessed a significant increase in recent years. The open-source philosophy underpinning much of the code developed and research being conducted has facilitated widespread access to the the hydrological community to sophisticated machine learning models and technology (Reichstein 2019). These data driven approaches to hydrological modelling has witnessed growing interest after multiple studies has shown how machine-learning models were able to outperform nationwide traditional physics-based hydrological models (Kratzerts et al. 2019). The latter often demands substantial man-hours for development, calibration and fine-tuning to accurately represent relevant hydrological processes. In this national-scale explorative study we undertake an in-depth examination of Danish catchment hydrology. Our objective is to understand what processes and dynamics are well captured by a purely data driven model without physical constraints, namely the Entity-Aware Long Short-Term Model (EA-LSTM). The model code was developed by Kratzerts et al. (2019) and the analysis build on top of a newly published national CAMELS data set covering 301 catchments in Denmark (Koch and Schneider, 2022), with an average resolution of 130 km2. Denmark, spanning an area of around 43 000 km2, demonstrates a relatively high data coverage. Presently more than 400 stations record water level measurements in the Danish stream network, while a network of 243 stations have collected meteorological data since 2011. These datasets maintained by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency and the Danish Meteorological Institute, respectively, and are publicly available. Despite Denmark’s data abundance, Koch and Schneider (2022) demonstrated that the data-driven EA-LSTM model, trained with the CAMELS dataset for Denmark (from now on referred to as the DK-LSTM) were not able to outperform the traditional physics-based hydrological model, against which it was benchmarked. Consequently, performance of the DK-LSTM model could be increased by pre-training it with simulations from a national physics-based model indicating that dominating hydrological processes are not described by the readily available input data in the CAMELS dataset. This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of Danish catchment hydrology aiming to explore three aspects: 1) the common characteristics of the catchments where the DK-LSTM performs well or encounters challenges, 2) the identification of hydrological characteristics, that exhibit improvement when informing the data-driven model with physics-based model simulations, and 3) an exploration of whether the aforementioned findings can guide us in determining necessary physical constraints and/or input variables that explains the hydrological processes for the data-driven model approach at a national scale, using the example of DK-LSTM.   Koch, J., and Schneider, R. Long short-term memory networks enhance rainfall-runoff modelling at the national scale of Denmark. GEUS Bulletin, 49. https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v49.8292, 2022. Kratzert, F., Klotz, D., Shalev, G., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter, S., and Nearing, G.: Towards learning universal, regional, and local hydrological behaviors via machine learning applied to large-sample datasets, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 5089-5110, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-5089-2019, 2019. Reichstein, M., Camps-Valls, G., Stevens, B. et al. Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science. Nature 566, 195–204. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0912-1, 2019.