A BOTTOM-UP APPROACH FOR DISTRICT-LEVEL DOMESTIC ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING

Abstract

An accurate district electricity load is crucial to ensure the optimal design and operation of Distributed Energy System (DES). Therefore, a bottom-up physics-based model of district-level thermal and electrical energy demand was developed in this research for estimating sub-hourly energy demand of buildings at a community/district level to support the mitigation of peak energy demand and to save energy and cost. The main factors influencing district energy demand considered in developing the model include: building construction and materials, equipment and appliances, local microclimate, and social and occupancy behaviours. A key feature of the model is the use of a sub-hourly updated weather forecast in order to improve prediction accuracy, and the estimation of household electrical appliance demand based on occupancy patterns and time of use (ToU). The model provides accurate predictions of the temporal electricity demand variations and the peak power load. The results of the study are used for (i) analysing the impact of energy efficiency schemes and demand response on the grid; (ii) the planning and operation of district-level low-voltage grid considering the flexibility offered by the houses.