A body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis: a study of Japanese patients

Abstract

In Asian population, there is limited information on the relevance between obesity and poor outcomes in acute pancreatitis (AP). The objective of this study was to examine the clinical impact of obesity based on body mass index (BMI) on prognosis of AP in Japanese patients. A total of 116 patients with AP were enrolled in this study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine relations between BMI and patients' outcomes. Additionally, to investigate whether including obesity as a prognostic factor improved the predictive accuracy of a Japanese prognostic factor score (PF score), a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of mortality was conducted. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that BMI =25 kg/m2 was associated with a significant higher mortality [odds ratio (OR)=15.8; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-227; P=0.043]. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the combination of PF score and BMI =25 kg/m2 (AUC=0.881; 95% CI: 0.809-0.952) was higher than that for the PF score alone (AUC=0.820; 95% CI: 0.713-0.927) (P=0.034). The negative impact of a high BMI on the prognosis of AP was confirmed in a Japanese population. Including BMI =25 kg/m2 as an additional parameter to PF score enhanced the predictive value of the PF score for AP-related mortality.