A binary probit model to analyze freight transportation decision-maker perspectives for container shipping on the Northern Sea Route

Abstract

The predicted decrease of ice presence in the Arctic Ocean may allow commercial container shipping to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) throughout the year starting by 2050. This paper conducts a stated preference survey of freight transportation decision-makers in East Asia and Europe to understand their perspectives towards the use of the NSR to ship cargo. A binary probit model is used to investigate the correlation between the operational and behavioral characteristics of freight transportation decision-makers and their attitudes towards maritime freight carriers operating through the NSR. The survey results suggest that a significant percentage of users will not use the NSR, at least during the initial period of operations, if the NSR is considered for container transportation between East Asia and Europe. Some perceptible differences were observed between the responses of forwarding companies, and freight transportation decision-makers from other industries, with forwarding companies less likely to use the NSR if their current carriers offer it as an alternative. Freight transportation decision-makers with large volumes, having shipments from East Asian countries but not to them, and/or ship chemical commodities, were found to be less likely to use the NSR.