A BIGGER FEAR. 1942-2022: Calamities and Social Change from Sorokin to Deaton

Abstract

In 1942 P. Sorokin published his noteworthy book "Man and Society in Calamity" providing 18 traits from psycho-social to macro, via micro and meso of the impact of calamities on ma and society. This paper has a twofold goal of sociological theory and policy modeling which is important to be linked strategically as research determines policy which determines politics. The first objective is to briefly present Sorokin's traits showing their multidimensional map and very briefly debating how this map is still valid in terms of procedural preparedness in the case of calamities which is not perfect but viable enough to meaningfully downsize the risk of media creation of panic through the use of granfaloon and further manipulation tools. The second objective regards policy modeling and global governance of calamities and its scale of jurisdiction, the possibility of a multilevel coordinated policy or the drift towards fragmented and contingent localization of non protagonist organization which for whatever reason (power, money etc.) and want to create a granfaloon, a trompe d'oeil and an unending threat or enemy to scare the masses and public opinion by pretending that they, the non protagonists - are the protagonists to keep the foe at bay. On these basis, this paper deals with the risks of misleading interpretation of calamities often depending on a lack of preparedness and/or by a strong will to manipulate facts politically.