A behavioural vaccination model with application to meningitis spread in Nigeria

Abstract

We propose a socio–epidemiological investigation of the effects of vaccine hesitancy on meningococcal meningitis transmission. The spread of the disease is described by a behavioural epidemic model. An information index is employed to take into account that the willingness to get vaccinated depends on the information and rumours about the status of the disease in the community. We show that voluntary vaccination is unable to eliminate the disease, since the control reproduction number is independent of information parameters. The model is parametrized on official data regarding the largest ever global epidemic of serogroup C meningitis occurred in Nigeria in 2016 to 2017. We reproduce both the uncontrolled phase and the controlled phase (through a vaccination campaign) of the outbreak. We estimate that the public was aware of about 69% of official data, and that the average time lag necessary for information to reach the public was 4.27 days. Our results show the potential applicability of behavioural epidemic models with information index.