A behavioral analysis of interest rates in Euro area

Abstract

Analyses the structural behaviour of money and capital market interest rates 1999‐2001 in the European Monetary Union. Finds that the positive correlations between interest rates of different time periods get stronger as the time periods get closer, derives the principal components which explain most of the variability and applies time series analysis to the model to produce forecasts which come very close to actual values. Develops a model of the Down Jones EURO STOXX financial sector index which also shows reliable forecasting power except for the Feb 2001 period when stock markets were “in turmoil”. Compares the returns for one‐month holdings of zero‐coupon European government bonds with different maturities for various return, risk and risk‐return measures; and finds that a one‐month holding of a two‐year bond is the best investment.