A Bayesian Reanalysis of the Overall and Sex-Disaggregated Results of the Neonatal Oxygenation Prospective Meta-Analysis (NeOProM)

Abstract

Data from the Neonatal Oxygenation Prospective Meta-analysis (NeOProM) indicate that targeting a higher (91–95%) versus lower (85–89%) pulse oximeter saturation (SpO2) range may reduce mortality and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and increase retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Aiming to re-evaluate the strength of this evidence, we conducted a Bayesian reanalysis of the NeOProM data. We used Bayes factors (BFs) to evaluate the likelihood of the data under the combination of models assuming the presence vs. absence of effect, heterogeneity, and moderation by sex. The Bayesian reanalysis showed moderate evidence in favor of no differences between SpO2 targets (BF10 = 0.30) in death or major disability, but moderate evidence (BF10 = 3.60) in favor of a lower mortality in the higher SpO2 group. Evidence in favor of differences was observed for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) (BF10 = 14.44, lower rate with lower SpO2), severe NEC (BF10 = 9.94), and treated ROP (BF10 = 3.36). The only outcome with moderate evidence in favor of sex differences was BPD. This reanalysis of the NeOProM trials confirmed that exposure to a lower versus higher SpO2 range is associated with a higher mortality and risk of NEC, but a lower risk of ROP and BPD. The Bayesian approach can help in assessing the strength of evidence supporting clinical decisions.