Abstract
It has become a popular pastime for political pundits and scholars alike to predict the winner of the U.S. presidential election. Although forecasting has now quite a history, we argue that the closeness of recent presidential elections and the wide accessibility of data should change how presidential election forecasting is conducted. We present a Bayesian forecasting model that concentrates on the Electoral College outcome and considers finer details such as third-party candidates and self-proclaimed undecided voters. We incorporate our estimators into a dynamic programming algorithm to determine the probability that a candidate will win an election.
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