A Bayesian network to analyse basketball players’ performances: a multivariate copula-based approach

Abstract

Statistics in sports plays a key role in predicting winning strategies and providing objective performance indicators. Despite the growing interest in recent years in using statistical methodologies in this field, less emphasis has been given to the multivariate approach. This work aims at using the Bayesian networks to model the joint distribution of a set of indicators of players’ performances in basketball in order to discover the set of their probabilistic relationships as well as the main determinants affecting the player’s winning percentage. From a methodological point of view, the interest is to define a suitable model for non-Gaussian data, relaxing the strong assumption on normal distribution in favour of Gaussian copula. Through the estimated Bayesian network, we discovered many interesting dependence relationships, providing a scientific validation of some known results mainly based on experience. At last, some scenarios of interest have been simulated to understand the main determinants that contribute to rising in the number of won games by a player.