A Bayesian network meta-analysis on second-line systemic therapy in advanced gastric cancer.

Abstract

It is unclear which regimen is the most efficacious among the available therapies for advanced gastric cancer in the second-line setting. We performed a network meta-analysis to determine their relative benefits. We conducted a systematic review of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) through the MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases and American Society of Clinical Oncology abstracts up to June 2014 to identify phase III RCTs on advanced gastric cancer in the second-line setting. Overall survival (OS) data were the primary outcome of interest. Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted from the publications on the basis of reported values or were extracted from survival curves by established methods. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed with WinBUGS to compare all regimens simultaneously. Eight RCTs (2439 patients) were identified and contained extractable data for quantitative analysis. Network meta-analysis showed that paclitaxel plus ramucirumab was superior to single-agent ramucirumab [OS HR 0.51, 95% credible region (CR) 0.30-0.86], paclitaxel (OS HR 0.81, 95% CR 0.68-0.96), docetaxel (OS HR 0.56, 95% CR 0.33-0.94), and irinotecan (OS HR 0.71, 95% CR 0.52-0.99). Paclitaxel plus ramucirumab also had an 89% probability of being the best regimen among all these regimens. Single-agent ramucirumab, paclitaxel, docetaxel, and irinotecan were comparable to each other with respect to OS and were superior to best supportive care. This is the first network meta-analysis to compare all second-line regimens reported in phase III gastric cancer trials. The results suggest the paclitaxel plus ramucirumab combination is the most effective therapy and should be the reference regimen for future comparative trials.