A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City

Abstract

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20–59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61–2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20–59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals.