A Bayesian Deep Learning-Based Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Early-Warning Model for Power Systems Considering Meteorological Conditions

Abstract

The ongoing process of decarbonizing the power system and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather have led to a significant increase in operating uncertainty and greatly reduced the system controllability. An effective risk assessment and early-warning tool will significantly assist system operators in monitoring and controlling power systems. However, existing methods mainly rely on simplified analytical conditional probability models to describe the component failure probability under different operating conditions and are not suitable for low-probability risk assessment. Inspired by the idea of Bayesian statistics, a Bayesian deep learning-based probabilistic risk assessment and early-warning (BDL-PRAEW) model considering meteorological conditions is proposed in this paper. A new Bayesian neural network (BNN) is proposed which efficiently utilizes expert experience and domain knowledge as prior to model the contingency probability. And a hybrid neural network is developed to rationally utilize the multi-source heterogeneous data and comprehensively analyze the historical and forecast information. Finally, a novel risk assessment and early-warning model for high-impact, low-probability (HILP) extreme events is proposed, which can predict the risk for the next n time-steps. The proposed method is tested on a modified IEEE 118-bus system and a real-world provincial grid, and the results verify its effectiveness.