A Bayesian change point analysis re-examines the 4.2 ka BP event in southeast Europe and southwest Asia

Abstract

The 4.2 ka BP event is a hypothesized global drought and cooling event and is claimed to be supported by proxy records from a wide range of geographical locations. However, recent studies have presented contradictory data that call into question the validity of this hypothetical event in certain regions, leading to renewed interest in defining its true geographical and temporal extent. This study applies a Bayesian model designed to test the existence of abrupt change points to paleoclimate time series from southeast Europe and southwest Asia, which are claimed to support this hypothesis. The results are discussed in relation to previous studies on the geographical extent of the 4.2 ka BP event. The results suggest that the evidence for the 4.2 ka BP event may not be as strong as previously thought. While this analysis supports the event that occurred in the central Mediterranean and Greece, it does not appear to have had an impact on proxy data from Anatolia and the Levant. Further proxy data are needed to confirm the existence of this potential climate event and better constrain its geographical extent.