Abstract
Flood is a temporary overflow of a dry area due to overflow of excess water, runoff surface waters or undermining of shoreline. In 2014, Malaysia grieved with the catastrophic flood event in Kuala Krai, Kelantan, which sacrificed human lives, public assets and a total of RM 2 billion loss. Due to uncertainties in flooding event, this research is set to compare three variations of Bayesian approaches in classifying the risk of flood into two classes; flood or no flood. The study involved data from Kuala Krai, which serves as the main observation point. The dataset contains six attributes, which are water level, rainfall daily, rainfall monthly, wind, humidity, and temperature. The classification experiment will be conducted using three variants of Bayesian approaches, which are Bayesian Networks (BN), Naïve Bayes (NB), and Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN). The outcomes of this research will show the best algorithm performance in term of accuracy for three Bayesian-based learning prediction algorithms. In the future, this prediction system is hoped to assist related agencies in Malaysia to categorize land areas that face high risk of flood so preventive actions can be planned in place.
Highlights
Malaysia is a country comprising Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, and Sarawak
This paper presents Bayesian approaches in predicting flood risk into flood or no flood
The purpose of this experiments is to compare the performance of Naive Bayes (NB), Tree Augmented Naïve Bayes (TAN) and Bayesian Networks (BN) algorithms with oversampling technique (SMOTE) and without the oversampling technique (Normal) when classifying the Kuala Krai flood data into risks of flood or no flood as shown in Fug. 2
Summary
Malaysia is a country comprising Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, and Sarawak. It covers fourteen states that are Perlis, Kedah, Penang, Perak, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Pahang, Melaka, Johor, Kelantan, Terengganu, Sabah, and Sarawak. The border of Indonesia on the south and Brunei on the north. Malaysia is located near the equatorial line at the Latitude 1 ̊ and North 7 ̊ and 100 ̊ and 100 ̊ East. Malaysia covers 329,960.22 km [1]. The Malaysian climate is experiencing a strong equator influenced by the north eastern monsoon from November to March and the western monsoon from June to October. The annual rainfall is very high which is 2500 mm in Peninsular Malaysia between 2300 mm in Sarawak, and 3300 mm in Sabah [2]
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