A Bayesian Approach to End-Member Mixing Estimations in a Geological Nuclear Waste Repository in Sweden

Abstract

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. (SKB) has been searching for a site to construct a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel in Sweden. In 2012, Forsmark was selected as the location for the nuclear fuel repository and construction will start in 2027. An understanding of the chemical composition and evolution of the groundwaters at the site is an integral part of the long-term safety case. SKB’s traditional approach to describe a site has been to use M3 mixing of end-members as the main process controlling the groundwater composition. We propose a new approach using a Bayesian mixing model. Similarly to the traditional mixing approach, the fraction of each end-member for all samples in the dataset is calculated, with the exception of the deep saline end-member. Given the slow movement of the deep groundwaters, it is likely that they have reached equilibrium with the host rock and fracture minerals. Therefore, we introduce an additional step, consisting of a Phreeqc model to construct the theoretical composition of groundwater with an increasing Cl concentration in equilibrium with the mineralogy of the host rock. This is a way of introducing a geochemical explanation to deep saline waters found in the geosphere of the Forsmark site. The results indicated a higher fraction of glacial meltwater in deep groundwaters in Forsmark compared to previous models. This approach could be directly applied to other groundwater systems, with different mineralogy of the host rock, assuming slow moving groundwater in equilibrium.