A Bayesian analysis or scientific judgment of uncertainties in estimating risk due to 222Rn in U.S. public drinking water supplies.

Abstract

The elements which contribute to the range of values or uncertainties for the lifetime risk and dose equivalent due to 222Rn in U.S. public drinking water supplies are estimated and discussed here. From imperfect scientific knowledge, reasonable upper and lower bounds are placed on these estimates through the use of a semiquantitative Bayesian approach to uncertainty analysis. The factors considered are: occurrence of 222Rn in drinking water, indoor air 222Rn concentrations as a function of drinking water concentration, equilibrium state of the progeny, fraction of daughter products attached to aerosol particles, anatomical and dosimetric variables, epidemiological studies and choice of latency period, plateau period and effects of age. For Rn in U.S. public drinking water supplies, it is estimated that the best estimate for the lifetime lung cancer risk factor is 5 X 10(-9) excess cases of lung cancer per becquerel of Rn per m3 of water (2 X 10(-7) excess cases of lung cancer per picocurie of Rn per liter of water), with an estimated range between 2 X 10(-9) and 2 X 10(-8) excess cases per becquerel of Rn per m3 of water (5 X 10(-8) and 7 X 10(-7) excess cases per picocurie of Rn per liter). The best estimate of the lifetime population risk due to 222Rn in U.S. public drinking water supplies is estimated to be 6,000 excess lung cancers, with a reasonable range of 1,000 to 30,000.