A Bass Diffusion Model of Suicide in the Philippines

Abstract

A growing number of researches have demonstrated that exposure to suicide throughtelevision or newspaper leads to increased suicide risk in vulnerable individuals. Highlypublicized celebrity suicides are often rationalized and sensationalized by the media. Thisphenomenon may result in an imitative, contagious suicide effect. This study uses theBass diffusion model to forecast suicide deaths in the Philippines from 2020 to 2025 basedon suicide data by the World Health Organization (WHO) from 2000 to 2017.The Bassmodel assumes that exposure to suicide (media, social media, verbal exchange of suicidestories) increases suicide deaths based on the suicide contagion hypothesis. The modeldepicts the successive increases in suicide deaths across Filipino age groups and predictsa suicide diffusion process. The resulting Bass model also underscores the necessity of asuicide contagion intervention plan to address the country’s expected increase of suicide.