A baseline long term technoeconomic electricity supply model for highly regulated fuel importing countries prone to shortages: Case of Jordan

Abstract

Jordan, like other fuel-importing countries, is highly susceptible to fuel shortages and price fluctuations due to global events. Political turmoil in the region has frequently disrupted Jordan's energy supply, including the recent cessation of natural gas imports from Egypt, which is examined in this study. To address these interruptions, Jordan signed a 15-year contract to import natural gas from the Leviathan gas field. Jordan has long term power purchase agreements with independent power producers. thus, creating a safe investment environment in the electricity production sector. In this research a long-term energy model was developed and implemented for Jordan with the Open-Source long-term energy modeling tool OSeMOSYS. The model is used to assess current policy and compare options moving forward. This study brings into focus the issues facing fuel importing countries prone to shortages. Contractual aspects were incorporated in the model and investigated. The need to diversify natural gas import contracts with relatively shorter durations was demonstrated. The impact of different fuel pricing projections was highlighted and needs to be considered when drawing up such contracts. It was also demonstrated that the current renewable energy outlook needs modification. potential of renewable energy needs added consideration from stakeholders and policy makers.