A balance exists between vegetation recovery and human development over the past 30 years in the Guizhou Plateau, China

Abstract

The question of whether a balance exists between vegetation recovery and long-term human development remains unclear worldwide, especially in the midst of climate change. To answer this question, two groups of spatially isolated islands in Hongfeng Lake, Guizhou Province, China that have experienced periods of human development, a mix of development and protection (interim period) and strict protection were chosen and monitored from 1988 to 2019. We applied multisource remote sensing to obtain NDVI data in the growth season and atmospheric data. We used an attribution analysis method to identify vegetation growth, climate factors, including temperature and precipitation in the region, and land use and land cover change on the islands over the 32-year study period. In the human development period, population size was the main influencing factor, with a weight exceeding 0.3. In the interim period, precipitation was the key factor that influenced vegetation growth and recovery (average weight of 0.27). In the protected period, human influences from the population size and the area of cultivated land were the most prominent factors (average weight of 0.26). Although there was considerable human activity across the islands, the vegetation has continued to recover over the past 20 years. We identified a recovery phase that occurred approximately 10 years after protected areas were created, which indicates that human development can coexist with protected areas. Moreover, variations in temperature and precipitation did not prevent vegetation recovery or growth.