A 5‐year simulation of supersonic aircraft emission transport using a three‐dimensional model

Abstract

A 5‐year simulation of supersonic aircraft exhaust using a three‐dimensional transport model has been completed using winds from the NASA/Goddard data assimilation system. A tracer based on emission rates of reactive nitrogen species (NOy) for all forecasted flight routes is continuously injected into the model. A parameterized upper stratospheric loss mechanism and a tropospheric sink due to rainout approximately balance the nitrogen emissions after several years of integration. Maximum values for exhaust NOy occur during the northern hemisphere (NH) summer months, and minimum values occur during winter. The pollutant is most zonally asymmetric during the NH summer. The peak values are never more than twice the zonal mean. This supports the use of zonally averaged two‐dimensional models to evaluate the impact of the exhaust on the lower stratospheric composition. Budget calculations from the transport model show that most exhaust released in the NH is transported downward into the troposphere, where it is destroyed. In the model, about 15–20% of exhaust released poleward of 30°N is transported into the tropics, where it is lofted. The stratospheric residence time for the exhaust is estimated to be 13 months.