Abstract
Abstract. The outputs of four global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC5), which were statistically downscaled and bias corrected, were used to drive four hydrological models (Hydrologiska Byråns, HBV; Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT; Soil and Water Integrated Model, SWIM; and Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) to simulate the daily discharge at the Cuntan hydrological station in the upper Yangtze River from 1861 to 2299. As the performances of hydrological models in various climate conditions could be different, the models were first calibrated in the period from 1979 to 1990. Then, the models were validated in the comparatively wet period, 1967–1978, and in the comparatively dry period, 1991–2002. A multi-objective automatic calibration programme using a univariate search technique was applied to find the optimal parameter set for each of the four hydrological models. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of daily discharge and the weighted least-squares function (WLS) of extreme discharge events, represented by high flow (Q10) and low flow (Q90), were included in the objective functions of the parameterization process. In addition, the simulated evapotranspiration results were compared with the GLEAM evapotranspiration data for the upper Yangtze River basin. For evaluating the performances of the hydrological models, the NSE, modified Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of the measured data (RSR) and Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) were used. The four hydrological models reach satisfactory simulation results in both the calibration and validation periods. In this study, the daily discharge is simulated for the upper Yangtze River under the preindustrial control (piControl) scenario without anthropogenic climate change from 1861 to 2299 and for the historical period 1861–2005 and for 2006 to 2299 under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The long-term daily discharge dataset can be used in the international context and water management, e.g. in the framework of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) by providing clues to what extent human-induced climate change could impact streamflow and streamflow trend in the future. The datasets are available at: https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:8658b22a-8f98-4043-9f8f-d77684d58cbc (Gao et al., 2019).
Highlights
Global warming is the long-term rise in average temperature of the earth’s climate system
The climate forcing comprises (a) the scenario with anthropogenic climate change for the period 1861–2299, which is subdivided into the historical period (1861–2005) and the future period (2006–2299) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and (b) the preindustrial control scenario for the period 1861–2299, which is used as a reference to detect the influence of anthropogenic climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River
Evapotranspiration data from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) for 1986–2005 that were released by the University of Bristol (Miralles et al, 2011) are used in our study to cross-check the performances of the hydrological models by means of the geographic information system (GIS) tools
Summary
Global warming is the long-term rise in average temperature of the earth’s climate system. The long-term accurate (as much as possible) daily discharge time series are crucial for in-depth understanding of the changes in streamflow, and they are needed for subsequent climate change impact studies. There is lack of research on the quantitative estimation of long-term streamflow for periods longer than 400 years under different scenarios with and without anthropogenic climate change (Meaurio et al, 2017). The longer discharge series can provide the possibility to explore impacts of anthropogenic climate change on hydrology for the international climate change research community. We simulated daily discharge at the Cuntan hydrological station in the upper Yangtze River in the period 1861–2299 using available climate model outputs. The climate forcing comprises (a) the scenario with anthropogenic climate change for the period 1861–2299, which is subdivided into the historical period (1861–2005) and the future period (2006–2299) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and (b) the preindustrial control scenario (piControl) for the period 1861–2299, which is used as a reference to detect the influence of anthropogenic climate change on streamflow in the upper Yangtze River
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