A 30-Year, Population-Based Study Shows Improved Management and Prognosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract

Little is known about the impact of changes in the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) over time. We assessed trends in the pattern of care and in prognosis at a population level. Data on diagnostic conditions, treatment, and prognosis from 1976-2005 were collected by the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). A nonconditional logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with treatment for cure. A multivariate relative survival analysis was also performed. The context of HCC diagnosis has changed; the proportion of asymptomatic patients increased from 5.6% (1976-1985) to 37.2% (1996-2005). The proportion of cases diagnosed on the basis of morphologic criteria increased from 14% during 1976-1985 to 35.6% during 1996-2005, whereas histologically verified cases decreased from 62.2% to 41.2% between the same time periods. The proportion of patients who were treated with intent to cure increased from 2.7% (1976-1985) to 19.6% (1996-2005). This increase was associated with improvements in relative survival from 4.7% (1976-1985) to 32.8% (1996-2005) at 1 year and from 1.4% to 10.0% at 5 years. The 5-year relative survival of patients treated with curative intent increased, reaching 46.6% for the 1996-2005 period. In the multivariate relative survival analysis, age, period of diagnosis, clinical presentation, alpha-fetoprotein level, and treatment were independent prognostic factors. During a 30-year period, there was an increase in the number of HCCs diagnosed in asymptomatic subjects that was associated with the development of new effective therapies; this association might account for improvements in prognosis of patients with HCC.