A 278-Year Summer Minimum Temperature Reconstruction Based on Tree-Ring Data in the Upper Reaches of Dadu River

Abstract

In the context of global warming, climate change in river headwater regions and its drivers have attracted increasing attention. In this study, tree-ring width (TRW) chronology was constructed using tree-ring samples of fir (Abies faxoniana) in Dadu River Basin in the central part of the western Sichuan Plateau, China. Correlation analysis with climatic factors implies that the radial growth of trees in the region is mainly limited by temperature and has the highest correlation with the mean minimum temperature in summer (June and July) (R = 0.602, p < 0.001). On this basis, the TRW chronology was adopted to reconstruct variations in the mean minimum temperatures in summer from 1733 to 2010 in the upper reaches of Dadu River. The reconstruction equation was stable and reliable and offered a variance explanation rate of 36.2% in the observed period (1962~2010). In the past 278 years, the region experienced nine warm periods and ten cold periods. The warmest and coldest years occurred in 2010 and 1798, respectively, with values of 13.6 °C and 11.0 °C. The reconstruction was highly spatiotemporally representative and verified by temperatures reconstructed using other tree-ring data in surrounding areas. A significant warming trend was found in the last few decades. Moreover, the multi-taper method (MTM) analysis indicated significant periodic changes in quasi-2-year and 21–35-year periods, for which the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) could be the key controlling factors.