Abstract
Many economists and policymakers implicitly assume that “previous, modest increases in the minimum wage” are informative about the effects of a $15 minimum. Economic theory predicts that the employment effects of the minimum wage should vary with the composition of affected occupations and industries. I find that a $15 minimum would affect a far broader set of occupations and industries than prior increases, calling into question whether we can extrapolate from past experience with the minimum wage. I find that the frontier of historical experience is a federal minimum between $9 and $11.
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