996-P: Cost-Effectiveness of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policies in California—A Microsimulation Study

Abstract

Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. In California, state-wide SSB taxes were proposed to reduce its consumption. We projected the health and economic consequence of imposing a state-wide SSB excise tax of $0.01/ounce over 10 years in California, using the Microsimulation of Nutrition, Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease (MONDAC) developed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and RTI International. The MONDAC model is a validated microsimulation model to track user-defined dietary changes on downstream outcomes: body-mass index, diabetes incidence, cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, all-cause mortality, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), direct medical costs, and cost-effectiveness. We generated a California representative sample aged ≥ 18 years based on data from the 2011-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and 2018 census. Data on reduction of the SSB consumption (by 20%) and program’s costs resulting from the $0.01/ounce SSB taxes were from published literature. We found that imposing a $0.01-per-ounce excise SSB tax in California would reduce diabetes, CVD, deaths and healthcare costs but increase QALYs, thus this policy would be cost-saving (Table). Disclosure Y.Chen: None. G.Imperatore: None. D.B.Rolka: None. B.T.Allaire: None. S.J.Onufrak: None. C.S.Holliday: None. P.Zhang: None.