97/02899 Electricity supply reliability—estimating the value of lost load

Abstract

This paper investigates the regional air pollution effects that could result from new opportunities for inter-regional power transmission in the wake of more competitive electricity markets. The key determinant of changes in electricity generation and transmission is the relative cost of electricity among neighboring regions. The key determinant of how much additional power would be traded is the uncommitted electricity transfer capability between regions, including its possible future expansion. The changes in emissions of NOx and CO2 that result from changes in the utilization of existing coal-fired facilities are modeled as a function of the average emission rate for each pollutant in each region, coupled with assumptions about the extent of displacement of coal-fired generation in the importing regions. We employ an atmospheric transport model to predict the changes in atmospheric concentrations of nitrates as a component of particulate matter (PM-10) and NOx in each region (but not changes in ozone), as well as changes in CO2 emissions.Our findings suggest that, in the year 2000, emissions of NOx could increase by 213 000 to 478 900 t as a result of restructuring. The changes in NOx emissions should be considered in the context of an expected decrease in annual emissions of over 2 million t that will result from full implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments over the next few years; nonetheless, these changes would have adverse health effects. Consequences for increased CO2 emissions range between 75 and 133.9 million t. Changes in pollutant concentrations resulting from changes in NOx emissions (excluding secondary ozone changes) would be substantially greater in regions where generation is increasing than in neighboring regions.