97/00169 World oil and geopolitics to the year 2010

Abstract

This paper focuses on the interplay of market forces and politics in the world oil market projected to the year 2010. It argues that world oil demand will increase considerably, with Asian demand growing the fastest. Given that the growth of oil supply of producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will be trivial, the call on OPEC oil will increase substantially. Yet, given their declining per-capita oil revenues, OPEC members may not be able to make timely investments in required upstream projects. If this happens, the supply constraint will lead to higher prices and intensified international competition for Arabian/Persian Gulf oil. Thus, foreign investment will be needed increasingly in OPEC states if prices are to remain stable. But geopolitical and institutional barriers to foreign investment in many OPEC members hinder foreign investment. It is imperative that major players in the world oil market cooperate to reduce such barriers in time to ensure that supply corresponds to rising demand. 22 refs., 8 figs., 10 tabs.