95/06729 Low oil and gas prices: Why? How long? What consequences?

Abstract

China's industrialization over the past 30 years has been an epochal event. As of 2000, the industrial sector's share of GDP has grown to be about two-third of the total. The share of agricultural sector of GDP has expectedly declined from 42.2% in 1970 to 11.9% in 2000. The sector's total output however continues to grow as productivity increases. Has the service sector grown enough to support the overall growth of the Chinese economy?China has earned her recognition as a foreign investment friendly economy. Foreign direct investment with 100% foreign ownership came in plenty, supported by a robust system of profit repatriation based on earnings in convertible currencies of exports of a part of newly manufactured products in China. China imported capital and paid for it by exports. China demonstrates a clear case of the import-export led model of industrialization and economic growth, not the simple export-led growth model, as discussed by some.This paper discusses that challenges ahead of China are overwhelming. We present three issues for immediate attention, (a) Can China sustain a rate of growth of GDP at an annual rate of 10% for an indefinite period? (b) How can China address the issues of income distribution across her 31 province and also amongst the various income groups in a given industrialized province/region? (c) Can China ensure progressive augmentation of high-tech oriented productivity of her workforce by way of ensuring building up of necessary human capital?It is argued that much of this can be accomplished by developing a macroeconomic framework with monetary and fiscal policy guidelines, well specified and transparent. Can China restructure its central bank, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC)? A progressive money, banking and financial sector with ability to absorb shocks of an industrial economy must be in order. How about the fiscal policy management by the Government of China—its Ministry of Finance?Finally this paper argues that China's economic presence will help optimize the economic gains for the rest of the world. China has joined her Asian neighbors toward sponsoring Asian economic cooperation. Let the European Union paradigm be a learning model, and China has a leadership role to play in further developing Asia's continental economic regional model.