9 - Prediction 2: long-term prediction of extreme waves

Abstract

This chapter deals with the numerical prediction of extreme individual waves using the spectral wave models routinely used for the forecasting, hindcasting, and future projection of sea states and wave climate. The theoretical framework behind extreme wave computation in spectral wave models is briefly introduced, together with the main field experiments conducted in the past to assess extreme wave model data against actual sea observations. Then, the wave models presently equipped with extreme wave output variables are presented. Finally, forecast charts, past studies, and experiments are provided as examples of typical applications of numerical wave modeling for the short- and long-term prediction of extreme waves, highly relevant for maritime and offshore safety.