9 - Data [2] container shipping demand for the present and future

Abstract

The shipping demands for container cargo from origins to destinations (OD matrix) are preliminarily given in the models proposed in this book as one of its essential inputs. This chapter first introduces how the present container OD matrix is estimated from existing sources. Then, the latter part of this chapter describes how the future container OD matrix is forecasted—a prerequisite for future simulations. The cargo shipping demand is a vital input of the simulation models introduced in this book. Based on the authors’ experience, the model output’s precision improves as the OD matrix is more precise. Particularly, the division of the OD matrix into the TAZ level from the country level is important. The regional distribution of the container and container-equivalent cargo shipping demand should be paid a very careful attention because it is generally different from other types of cargo. It is also important to estimate the future shipping demand. If considering the regional difference in the increasing rate of demand, extreme differentiation is better to be avoided because it could severely deteriorate the balance of the current shipping network.