82 The Significant Burden of Burn Injuries in the Middle East: An Epidemiological Study of Nineteen Countries over 27 Years

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Despite ongoing improvements in burn care around the world, the burden of burn morbidity and mortality has remined a significant challenge in the Middle East due to ongoing conflicts, economic crises, social disparities, and dangerous living conditions. Here, we examine the epidemiology of burn injuries in the Middle East (ME) relative to socio-demographic index (SDI), age, and sex in order to better define regional hotspots that may benefit most from sustainability and capacity building initiatives. Methods Computational modeling from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD17) database was used to extrapolate burn data about the nineteen countries that define the ME. Using the GBD17, the yearly incidence, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2017 were defined with respect to age and sex as rates of cases, deaths, and years per 100,000 persons, respectively. Mortality ratio represents the percentage of deaths relative to incident cases. Data from 2017 was spatially mapped using heat-mapping for the region. Results Over 27 years in the ME, an estimated 18,289,496 burns and 308,361 deaths occurred causing 24.5 million DALYs. Burn incidence decreased by 5% globally but only 1% in the ME. Although global incidence continued to decline, most ME countries exhibit steady increases since 2004. Compared to global averages, higher mortality rates (2.8% vs 2.0%) and DALYs (205 vs 152 years) were observed in the Middle East during this time although the respective disparities narrowed by 95% and 42% by 2017. Yemen had the worst death and DALY rates all 27 years with 2 and 2.2 times the ME average, respectively. Sudan had the highest morality ratio (3.7%) for most of the study, twice the ME average (1.8%), followed by Yemen at 3.6%. Sex-specific incidence, deaths, and DALYs in the ME were higher compared to the global cohorts. ME women had the worst rates in all categories. With respect to age, all rates were worse in the ME age groups except in those under 5 years. Conclusions For almost three decades, ME burn incidence, deaths, DALYs, and mortality rates were consistently worse than global average. Despite the already significant differences for burn frequency and severity, especially in women and children, underreporting from countries who lack sufficient registry capabilities likely means that the rates are even worse than predicted.