8 Impacts of Future Climate Scenarios on the Beef Industry of the Great Plains and Western Us

Abstract

Abstract Global average temperatures have increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius compared with pre-Industrial times and future temperature increases will be driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions trends. Impacts of climate change vary by geographic regions, with the Great Plains and Western US likely to experience increased temperatures, increased frequency of drought, and more extreme precipitation events. These climate impacts can affect the beef industry in those regions in multiple ways from increasing heat stress, decreasing forage availability, impacting forage quality, and reducing water availability for drinking water and feed production. In the southwestern US, increasing temperatures are likely to increase evapotranspiration, reduce snow cover, and lead to earlier snow melts, all of which can contribute to the aridification of the region. For cow-calf production within the region, aridification will reduce the forage biomass available for grazing cattle operations and reduce carrying capacity, creating potential vulnerabilities to rangeland ecosystems and rural communities dependent upon the cattle industry. Increased incidence of heat waves in the Great Plains and Western US can negatively impact vulnerable cattle populations, such as finishing cattle, particularly those housed in environments with minimal heat stress mitigation measures. Decreased water availability can potentially shift cattle production and feed production away from arid regions dependent upon vulnerable water resources, such as the Colorado River and Ogallala aquifer. In general, the increased climate variability and aridification of some parts of the Great Plains and Western US will create risks for the beef industry that will likely necessitate changes, from shifting cattle population to increased use of heat stress mitigation strategies.