Abstract

Abstract Background The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a decrease in injury-related paediatric emergency department (ED) visits. However, the longitudinal impact of COVID-19 on paediatric injury beyond the first 6 months of the pandemic is not well established. Objectives To quantify the impact of COVID-19 and associated public health measures on injury-related paediatric ED visits during the first two years of the pandemic and determine whether children of all ages were similarly affected. Design/Methods We conducted a longitudinal observational study of injury-related ED visits at a large paediatric tertiary care centre before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used negative binomial regression to assess the impact of the first two years of the pandemic (Year 1: March 2020-February 2021; Year 2: March 2021-February 2022) on the monthly incidence of injury-related ED visits and risk of hospitalization from injury. Secular time-trends and seasonality were accounted for by modelling the pre-pandemic trend using a 4-year historical control (April 2016-February 2020). In a secondary stratified analysis, changes in monthly incidence of injury-related ED visits were assessed by age group (0-4, 5-11, and 12-17 years). Results Of 458,799 ED visits during the 6-year study period, 21,644 (4.7%) were associated with injuries. The distribution of age categories, acuity of presentation, and frequency of hospitalization were similar between the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods (see Table below). Injury-related paediatric ED visits reached a low (−49%) in March 2020 (IRR 0.51, 95% CI 0.43-0.60), and a peak (+50%) in January 2021 (IRR 1.50, 95% CI 1.33-1.68) relative to historical controls (see Figure). All three confinement periods were associated with an initial reduction in injury-related ED visits and followed by a rapid increase in visits. Fluctuations in injury-related ED visits were found to differ between age groups. While there was evidence of no change among preschoolers 0-4 years old, there was a 52% reduction in visits at the onset of the pandemic in children ages 5-11 (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.35-0.65) and an 87% reduction in children ages 12-17 (RR 0.13, 95% CI 0.06-0.23) followed by a surplus of cases among the 5- to 11-year-olds in January 2021 (+53%; RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.25-1.85) and March 2021 (+48%, RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.21-1.80). Conclusion The consequences of COVID-19 on paediatric injury extend far beyond the first few months of the pandemic. Understanding changes in the incidence of paediatric injury around confinement periods may assist in the development of injury prevention strategies.

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