7.3.2 Monte‐Carlo Simulation Approach for System Readiness Level Estimation

Abstract

AbstractA system‐focused prescriptive metric, called System Readiness Level (SRL), which incorporates both the current Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale and the concept of an Integration Readiness Level (IRL) has recently been established to measure current and future readiness status of a system under development. In previous research, deterministic values for components' TRLs and IRLs estimation were assumed, which involves much human subjectivity. Moreover, only point estimation from calculation was proposed in previous research. In order to reduce the subjective influence, we propose a probabilistic method here to combine all evaluators' estimation towards a system's components and integration points. Based on the probabilistic form of TRLs and IRLs, a Monte‐Carlo simulation methodology is followed herein to assess the maturity status (SRL) of a system. An illustrative example is examined to show how to employ the proposed methodology. The paper concludes with the discussion of the gained value of the new methodology as well as its limitation.