Abstract
AbstractThis study employs a systems approach and using system dynamics to model the dengue situation in Singapore, using the data between 2005 and 2008 to understand the two major dengue outbreaks which occurred in 2005 and 2007. In Singapore, people are encouraged to make sure that there is no still water in their houses to minimize the breeding of mosquitoes. However, the breeding mosquitoes and consequently the spread of dengue depend on many factors including climate environment, the population dynamics of vector mosquitoes and humans, and the infection rates between the two. A model was built to simulate these factors. The results derived from the stock‐and‐flow model are compared against historical dengue incidence for the DEN‐2 virus, which is the predominant serotype of dengue in 2007.The model results are found to reflect the trends consistently with a high Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.918 (degrees of freedom = 207). This study found that dengue incidence is more sensitive to an increase in larvicidal control measures than adulticidal ones. However, both approaches need to be sustained consistently to pre‐empt the evolution of insecticide resistance which can significantly reduce effectiveness of a single type of control measure.
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