Abstract
Abstract Background and Aims Little is known about trends over time and anticipated improvements in CKD diagnosis after the implementation of the Kidney Disease – Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines in 2012. We investigated CKD prevalence and incidence over time using claims data in persons aged 70+. Method We assessed CKD prevalence and incidence biennially in cross-sectional claims data of the German health insurance fund “AOK Nordost” for persons aged 70+ between 2012 and 2018. Data are available for n = 62,200 persons per year and were sampled equally distributed for five age strata (70-74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, ≥90) and for sex. CKD prevalence and incidence were estimated in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 using in- and outpatient ICD-10 diagnoses (N18.3, N18.4, N18.5, N18.8, N18.9, N19). Incidence was defined as prevalent cases without a diagnosis in the four quarters preceding their first CKD diagnosis over all persons at risk (i.e., who were not prevalent in the respective previous year). Results are shown in total (standardized by age and sex using nationwide demographic distributions for a respective year) as well as stratified by age and sex. Cochran-Armitage test was applied to test time trends for incidence and prevalence from 2012–2018. Results Claims data-based CKD prevalence showed a significant constant increase from 0.18 in 2012 to 0.26 in 2018 (p <0.001). This time trend in CKD prevalence was consistent among all age and sex strata (Figure 1). Over the same time period, CKD incidence increased from 0.06 to 0.08 (p <0.001), while the percentage of persons at risk decreased from 0.81 to 0.72 between 2012 and 2018 due to increasing prevalence (Table 1). Both prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in males compared to females in all age strata (Figure 1). Conclusion The present cross-sectional analysis in claims data allows novel insights of CKD prevalence and incidence among older adults in Germany. CKD prevalence increased constantly over time after the introduction of the KDIGO guidelines in 2012. For CKD incidence, we detected only a small increase over the observation period. The extent of time trends for CKD incidence might be underestimated due to increasing prevalence.
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