近50年来东江流域水资源年际变化规律研究

Abstract

采用水文变异诊断系统对东江流域干流龙川站、河源站、岭下站、博罗站年平均流量序列进行变异分析。诊断发现龙川站、河源站和岭下站年平均流量序列呈现显著的跳跃变异，且变异时间均在1972年，分析了东江流域水资源年际变化规律。物理成因分析表明频繁的人类活动是导致序列变异的主要原因。根据变化环境下非一致性序列的水文频率计算原理，计算了博罗站和龙川站、河源站、岭下站变异前后年平均流量的水文频率分布，并比较了均值和不同频率特征值之间的差异，该结果对东江流域水资源合理开发和配置、防洪工程设计规划和改造具有一定的参考价值。 Firstly, the hydrological variation diagnosis system (HVDS) was used to analyze the variation of the annual average flow series at four stations of Dongjiang trunk stream: Longchuan station, Heyuan station, Lingxia station and Boluo station. The results show that: the annual average flow series at Longchuan station, Heyuan station and Lingxia station were significantly inconsistent; the change-points were all in the year of 1972, and the interannual variation of water resource in Dongjiang River was analyzed. The main cause of these variations was frequent human activities. Secondly, the frequency distributions of annual average flow series before and after the change-point at Boluo station, Longchuan station, Heyuan station and Lingxia sta- tion were conducted based on the hydrological frequency calculation theory for inconsistent series (HFCT), and the differences of means and various frequency characteristic values were analyzed. The results are valu- able for the reasonable development and allocation of water resource and the planning and transformation of flood control engineering in Dongjiang River basin.