50 Can the effects of ocean warming on temperate reef communities be accurately predicted? lessons from a large scale, long term field experiment in central California

Abstract

One of the most commonly predicted effects of global ocean warming on marine communities is a poleward shift in the distribution of species with an associated replacement of cold‐water species by warm‐water species. Such predictions are imprecise and based largely on broad correlations in uncontrolled studies that examine changes in species composition and abundance relative to seawater temperature. Before‐After‐Control‐Impact (BACI) analyses of the effects of a large thermal discharge shows that an induced 3.4 deg. C rise in seawater temperature over 10 years along 2 km of rocky coastline resulted in significant community‐wide changes in 150 species of algae and invertebrates relative to controls. Contrary to predictions from biogeographic models, there was no trend towards warm‐water species with southern geographic affinities replacing cold‐species with northern affinities. Instead, communities were greatly altered in apparently cascading responses to changes in abundance of several habitat‐forming taxa, particularly subtidal kelps (e.g. Pterygophora californica) and intertidal foliose red algae (e.g. Mazzaella flaccida). Many temperature sensitive algae decreased greatly in abundance, whereas many invertebrate grazers increased. The results indicate that the responses of temperate reef communities to ocean warming can be strongly coupled to direct effects on habitat‐forming taxa and indirect effects operating through ecological interactions. Given our understanding of temperate reef ecology and its local variability, the results also suggest that accurate predictions of the effects of global ocean warming will be difficult to make.