50년간 통계분석을 통한 국내 산불과 기상과의 관계

Abstract

The analytical results of the occurrences of forest fires with annual precipitation and durations, precipitation and durations during warned period of forest fire, drought warning in past 50 years showed that the occurrences had more relevance on precipitation and rained days during warned period of forest fire than annual precipitation and rained days a year. During 2000s, the annual precipitation and rained days a year and the precipitation and rained days during warned period of forest fire were larger than 1990s, but the occurrences of the fire were increased because of the larger number of drought warnings. According to monthly average precipitation during warned period of forest fire and the occurrences of forest fire in past 50 years, monthly average precipitation in February, March, November were consistently decreased, so the occurrences of forest fires expected to be increased. And the monthly average precipitation in December and May, increased continuously then the actual occurrences of forest fires were decreased. The monthly average precipitation in January, April were continuously decreased until 1990s, but were increased recently in 2000s. The riskiness of forest fire declined a little bit since 2000s due to the increased precipitation, but continuous cautions were required because of statistics of occurrence rates.