5 South Asia

Abstract

Key trendsThe Indian government had some success in reducing violence and partly regaining people’s trust vis-à-vis conflicts in the Northeast and with the CPI–Maoist group. In Pakistan, violence by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) declined; 2019 was the first year since 2003 without Pakistani or US airstrikes.Violence intensified in several theatres, including Afghanistan, where the Taliban increased its territorial control, and in Kashmir. The latter conflict sparked an arms race between India and Pakistan.Multiple long-running protests and incidents of civil disobedience in the region were repressed violently by security forces.ISIS is active across the region and announced three South Asian provinces.Strategic implicationsThe conflict in Kashmir was discussed at the UN Security Council as it generated international concerns and became increasingly internationalised.Baloch insurgent attacks against Chinese interests in Pakistan put significant pressure on Islamabad and continued to frustrate Beijing (although it remains a key ally of Pakistan in the international arena).In Northeast India, counter-insurgency coordination between India and Myanmar was a significant military and diplomatic development.ProspectsStalemate or collapse of peace talks is a strong possibility in both Afghanistan and all the Indian conflicts.In the Kashmir conflict a rapprochement between India and Pakistan is not on the horizon and the situation might worsen along the Line of Control.India’s economic clout means it is unlikely to come under greater international pressure.