Abstract
选取1971~2014年藏东南4个气象站逐日气象资料，采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法，分析了藏东南年、季降水量和气温的年际和年代际变化、气候突变。结果表明：近44 a年降水量呈现为减少趋势，平均每10 a减少1.24 mm，春季降水呈增加趋势，其他季节趋于减少，以秋季减少最为明显。年平均气温以0.28℃/10 a的速率显著升高，最高气温和最低气温都出现了升高的趋势。在10 a年际变化尺度上，年平均气温表现为逐年代升高趋势；年降水量在20世纪90年代偏多，其他3个年代均偏少。在时间突变点上，年平均气温出现在1994年；年、季降水量未出现突变。 Based on homogeneity-adjusted monthly mean temperature, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation data of 4 stations in Southeastern Tibet from 1971 to 2014, the climatic variations and climate abrupt characteristics of air temperature and precipitation are analyzed by using the methods of linear regression and Mann-Kendall test, etc. The results show that during the past 44 years the annual precipitation decreases with a rate of 1.24 mm/10 a, while that in spring increases, but decreases in other season, especially in autumn. The annual mean temperature has increased in Southeastern Tibet with a rate of 0.28℃/10 a, the trends of mean maximum and minimum temperatures are increasing. On the decadal scale, the annual mean temperature shows increase trend, and the annual precipitation is more in the 1990s and less in the other three decades. According to the Mann-Kendall test, the abrupt change of annual mean temperature occurred in 1994, but no abrupt change appeared for annual and seasonal precipitation.
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