Abstract
alcohol etiology were more likely to be male (65 vs. 36%, p<0.05), Black (18 vs. 4%, p= 0.04) and smokers (88 vs. 29%, p<0.01). Over a median follow up (which was similar across etiologies) of 9 years (IQR 6, 15), progression to CP occurred in 20 (18%) patients. The mean age at the time of CP diagnosis was 48 +/17 years and the median duration from the first episode of AP to the diagnosis of CP was 7 years (IQR 4, 13). The overall risk of progression to CP was significantly higher in patients with alcohol (vs. others) etiology (41 vs. 14%, p<0.05). On Cox-regression analysis, the risk of progression from AP to CP was 3 fold higher in patients with alcohol etiology (HR 3.1, 95% CI 1.2-7.7) (Figure 1). Conclusions: Progression from RAP to CP, although frequent in patients with alcohol etiology, also occurs in a subset of patients with other etiologies.
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