Abstract
Against a rapidly aging population, projections are done to size up the demand for long-term care (LTC) services for long-range policy planning. These projections are typically focused on functional factors such as disability. Recent studies indicate the importance of social factors, for example, socially isolated seniors living alone are more likely to be institutionalized, resulting in higher demand for LTC services. This is one the first known studies to complete a 40-year projection of LTC demand based on disability and social isolation. The primary micro dataset was the Retirement and Health Survey, Singapore’s first nationally representative longitudinal study of noninstitutionalized older adults aged 45 to 85 with over 15,000 respondents. Disability prevalence across the mild to severe spectrum is projected to increase five-fold over the next 40 years, and the number of socially isolated elders living alone is projected to grow four-fold. Regression models of living arrangements revealed interesting ethnic differences: Malay elders are 2.6 times less likely to live alone than their Chinese counterparts, controlling for marital status, age, and housing type. These projections provide a glimpse of the growing demand for LTC services for a rapidly aging Singapore and underscore the need to shore up community-based resources to enable seniors to age-in-place.
Highlights
Projections are integral to long-term policy formulation
We report the innovative use of microdata to project disability prevalence and social isolation among older adults
We describe the global aging context and synthesize the extant literature on the factors-functional and social-that contribute to demand for long-term care (LTC) services
Summary
Projections are integral to long-term policy formulation. Traditionally, projections rely on macro indicators (e.g., GDP) to provide big picture directions, they are too generic for detailed planning. We report the innovative use of microdata (e.g., surveys) to project disability prevalence and social isolation among older adults. Our study has both policy and conceptual significance: From a policy perspective, such granular projections are more useful for long-term care and community care planning [1]. This is one of the first known studies to project long term care (LTC) demand based on both functional (disability) and social factors (social isolation). We describe the global aging context and synthesize the extant literature on the factors-functional and social-that contribute to demand for LTC services
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More From: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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