3D stratigraphic forward modeling of an ancient transgressive barrier system: A case study of accuracy and sensitivity

Abstract

Accuracy of geological modeling and understanding of the controlling parameters in sedimentary systems evolution are challenges in both academy and industry. Uncertainty in the prediction of spatial and temporal facies distributions and difficulties in quantitative analysis of controlling parameters are current challenges. To increase geological model certainty and sedimentary process understanding, computational modeling has evolved exponentially during the last 50 years. In this study, 3D stratigraphic forward modeling technique is used to simulate an ancient transgressive barrier system of southern Brazil, deposited during the Lower Permian in the Paraná Basin, upper part of the Rio Bonito Formation. In the study area, the depositional systems are part of a large transgressive cycle that includes fluvial-estuarine facies at the base and barrier-lagoon deposits (associated with the development of salt marshes) at the top. Throughout the region, offshore strata cover the barrier-lagoon facies. The simulation successfully represented the retrograde evolution of the coastal barrier system, with longshore currents as the main transport mechanism of sediments. The evolution of the barrier system started with upper shoreface deposits overlying the lagoon system facies in the south. Later, lower shoreface sediments covered upper shoreface deposits. Then, shoreline migration continued landward. Finally, offshore transition deposits covered all previous deposits. Simulations and tests of controlling parameters allowed an adjustment to actual thickness and lithologies up to 83%. These simulations allowed for the analysis of model sensitivity, in particular to the influence of parameters that control sedimentary evolution. The main controlling parameter was sediment supply (volume and composition), followed by time step. Initial bathymetry and sediment velocity had less of an impact.