3-D Modeling of Pore Pressure Diffusion Beneath Koyna and Warna Reservoirs, Western India

Abstract

The mechanism of reservoir-triggered seismicity is well-understood and explains the earthquake occurrence at different reservoir sites. It can be attributed to the stresses due to water loading and to changes in fluid pressure in pores within the rock matrix. In the present study a 3-D fluid flow numerical model is used to investigate the pore pressure diffusion as a cause for continued seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region in western India. It is shown that reservoir water level fluctuations are sufficient to trigger earthquakes at the seismogenic depths in the region. Our numerical model suggests that a vertical fault with hydraulic conductivity in the range 2–6 m/day facilitates the diffusion of pressure at focal depths of earthquakes in the Koyna–Warna region. Also, for triggering of earthquakes a higher vertical conductivity is required for the Warna region than for the Koyna region. A lag of two months period is found between the maximum water level and the significant hydraulic head required to trigger earthquakes at the focal depth using the appropriate hydraulic conductivity for both the reservoirs.